Government data is no longer reliable

Today's firing of the labor commissioner was a warning shot to all government statisticians and data analysts - if you publish accurately, heads will roll.

This means that the data that economists normally use to make decisions about the country is no longer going to be accurate, but inflated.

That means interest rates are not as likely to be correctly calibrated with the central bank, which could lead to inflation and market volatility.

Combined with the fiscal policy of haphazard tariffs, the market is set to majorly contract.

This was reflected in the jobs report for the last three months, and this week's stock market shudders, and is likely to worsen dramatically once tariffs go into effect on August 7th.

When this is combined with the shutdown of public utilities like the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which was one of the few ways rural areas could access accurate nonpartisan information and emergency alerts, and the major, intense pressures on news networks like CBS, and ABC, things are about to get a lot more hazy.

Your stocks won't be doing so well, but you won't know why.

Companies will be doing layoffs, despite reports that the economy is "good".

Rate cuts will come, but they will be made due to political pressures, and the dollar will correspondingly weaken.

Some analysts like Heather Cox Richardson believe that the administration is grasping at straws - this is wrong.

Right now, consolidation of power is the strongest its ever been - strong enough that the leaders are acting completely in the open, with impunity.

Heather says that the administration's leaders seeking governorships are a sign they don't like the chaos in Washington - this is wrong. The current behavior is a classic securing of fiefdoms. Once a ruler takes power, the army they amassed to centralize the power is no longer necessary, and the lieutenants can fan out to claim fiefs of their own.

Buckle up your seat belts, the ride is about to get choppy.

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What happens after an authoritarian descent: Predicting the US trajectory

Post-Consolidation Authoritarian Trajectories (Worst to Best) Path 1: Hyper-Radicalization and Collapse (5-15 years typical duration) Examples: Nazi Germany (1933-1945), Cambodia under Khmer Rouge (1975-1979), Uganda under Idi Amin (1971-1979) * Accelerating purges: Regime begins consuming its own supporters * Economic irrationality: Ideology overrides economic logic, leading to systemic breakdown * International isolation: Aggressive