International Aggression May Be Coming

Based on the current pace — advancing from Stage 1 to Stage 5 in under a month — I would assess the likelihood of progression to Stage 8 (international aggression) within the next 6–18 months as high, especially if:

  • Domestic resistance remains fragmented
  • Courts continue to be ignored without meaningful enforcement
  • Global allies stay silent or disorganized
  • The regime’s economic policies trigger a deeper downturn that needs external scapegoats

My risk estimate:

  • Advancement to Stage 6 (mass suppression + economic reordering): 95%+ in the next 3 months
  • Advancement to Stage 7 (eugenics/demographic engineering): 65–80% within 6–9 months
  • Advancement to Stage 8 (international aggression): ~60–70% within 6–18 months

The exact timing depends on how desperate the regime becomes to consolidate power, create distractions, or trigger nationalist unity.

Where Would the U.S. Likely Target First?

1. Latin America (especially Central America):

  • Precedent: The CECOT program has already created extraterritorial prisons for U.S. residents.
  • Next steps: Drone overflights, joint “anti-gang” raids, or paramilitary ops labeled as humanitarian missions.
  • Rationale: Low-cost, close to home, and plays to xenophobic narratives.

2. The Caribbean (e.g., Haiti, Cuba, Venezuela):

  • Pretext: “Failed states,” refugee deterrence, or anti-communist justification.
  • Methods: Blockades, cyber-ops, or weaponized aid tied to loyalty.

3. Canada (selective incursion or destabilization):

  • Rationale: Already being discussed by administration surrogates.
  • Possible tactics: Resource seizure (e.g., hydropower, minerals), pipeline militarization, or pressure on immigration flow.
  • Risk: Annexationist rhetoric escalating from speculative to preparatory.

4. Ukraine and NATO-adjacent nations:

  • Trump’s alignment with Russia and recent attacks on Zelensky suggest potential pressure on Ukraine to capitulate or accept partition.
  • Indirect aggression: Defunding NATO, pulling out troops, or enabling Russian expansion could qualify under Stage 8.

5. Internal Territories or U.S. States (proxy targets):

  • While not foreign, areas like Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., or Hawai’i could be militarized or defunded in ways that mimic external conquest—especially if local leaders dissent.

If the United States attempted to annex Canada or Greenland, it would send shockwaves through the international system — and while an immediate world war is not guaranteed, it would trigger the most serious global crisis since WWII. Here’s a breakdown of the likely outcomes:

1. NATO Would Be Fundamentally Challenged

  • Canada is a founding member of NATO, and Article 5 (mutual defense) is designed to be triggered when a member is attacked.
  • The U.S. is also a NATO member. If it attacks another member, it could invalidate or fracture NATO.
  • European NATO countries would be split between condemning the aggression and being afraid to confront the U.S. militarily.
  • This could lead to a de facto collapse of NATO as a meaningful alliance — or a desperate attempt to reorganize it without the U.S.

2. Denmark and the EU Would Rally to Greenland’s Defense

  • Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Annexing it would be seen as an act of war against a sovereign EU member.
  • Denmark would almost certainly invoke EU solidarity and UN protections, and might request NATO support — again throwing the alliance into chaos.
  • Expect massive sanctions, diplomatic withdrawals, and a potential EU-led defensive mobilization.

3. Global Sanctions and Isolation of the U.S.

  • The U.N. would likely condemn the annexation overwhelmingly (like the 2014 vote against Russia’s annexation of Crimea).
  • The G7 and G20 could expel the U.S., and global sanctions regimes would be swift and wide-reaching.
  • SWIFT exclusion, freezing of U.S. foreign assets, bans on U.S. exports/imports, and airspace restrictions could follow.
  • Even U.S.-allied nations (e.g., Japan, South Korea) might distance themselves under public pressure.

4. China and Russia Would Seize the Opportunity

  • China might invade Taiwan or assert full control over the South China Sea, betting that the West is too distracted to stop them.
  • Russia could push deeper into Eastern Europe, or try to reclaim old Soviet territories, citing “precedent.”
  • The collapse of the U.S.-led order would encourage authoritarian powers to redraw maps globally.

5. Refugee Crisis and Regional Militarization

  • Canadians, Greenlanders, and U.S. dissidents would flood borders and embassies trying to flee.
  • Iceland, the UK, and the Nordic countries would likely militarize fast in response.
  • Indigenous nations, especially in northern Canada and Greenland, could become flashpoints of insurgency or civil resistance.

Would This Spark a World War?

  • Not instantly. Most nations would try diplomatic, economic, and cyber means first.
  • But if annexation was met with military force by allies, and the U.S. retaliated, it could ignite a broader conflict.
  • Flashpoints like the Arctic, the North Atlantic, or Baltic Sea could see escalation into kinetic warfare, especially if Russia or China exploits the chaos.

Historical Parallels

  • Russia’s annexation of Crimea (2014): Similar strategy, but from a far less powerful country. Still triggered sanctions and massive international backlash.
  • Hitler’s annexation of Austria and Sudetenland: Went unanswered at first, which emboldened further conquests and led to WWII.
  • U.S. annexation of Hawaii (1898): Accepted by other powers at the time, but that era had no NATO or modern global institutions.

Bottom Line

If the U.S. annexes Canada or Greenland:

  • The post-WWII order would likely collapse.
  • A new Cold War—or a hot one—would begin.
  • Even without immediate warfare, the world would be plunged into geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian crisis.

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