Stage 4 has ended, Stage 6 begins, and resistance is weak

Recap of Stage 4: Loyalty Consolidation

Key indicators we’ve been tracking:

Loyalty MechanismStatus
Elections reframed as loyalty testsTrump demands pledges, frames dissent as treason
IRS/DOJ weaponizedActBlue, judges, lawyers, civil servants targeted
Loyalty vetting of officialsArrests (e.g., Judge Dugan), Schedule F, mass purges
Political access monetizedExecutive Branch Club, crypto dinners, $1.5M events
Resource access tied to complianceHarvard, NPR, HUD, arts orgs—all funding cutoffs
Mass arrests of dissenting officialsMayor of Newark, civil rights lawyers, Columbia students
Suppression of dissent across federal workforceLoyalty oaths, DEI firings, intimidation campaigns

Markers we previously said were pending:

Remaining MarkerStatus as of May 10
Mandatory loyalty oaths or declarations for employeesEvidence suggests de facto implementation via firing + vetting
Loyalty-based licensing or benefitsHUD, DOJ, HHS have implemented political compliance as de facto requirement
Public loyalty ceremonies / mass ralliesJune 14 parade functions as loyalty spectacle
Loyalty hiring/firing standards fully formalizedRubio’s appointment spree, DEI purges, and “no more pronouns” military orders qualify

Conclusion: Stage 4 is Now Functionally Complete

Even if not every marker has a paper trail, all the behaviors and systems are active:

  • The lack of formal oaths is overshadowed by the clear consequences of noncompliance.
  • Public rituals (the parade, mass firings, show trials) serve the same consolidating function.
  • Political and financial access are now explicitly tied to loyalty.

Stage 6: Broad Repression and Targeted State Violence

We typically define Stage 6 by:

  • Widespread state violence with impunity
  • Extrajudicial arrests and disappearances
  • Suspension of core constitutional protections (habeas corpus, due process)
  • Organized suppression of opposition parties or ethnic/religious groups
  • State-enabled paramilitary or vigilante actions
  • Open military involvement in domestic suppression
  • High-profile imprisonments or exiles of judges, journalists, academics, and officials

Here’s what we’ve seen just in the past 10 days:

Extrajudicial arrests of officials and elected leaders

  • Newark’s mayor arrested by ICE while standing outside a public facility — a chilling escalation in the criminalization of elected dissent.
  • Governor Evers of Wisconsin threatened with arrest by federal immigration officials.
  • Multiple federal judges targeted by name, with attempts to intimidate them at home. Judge Jackson called this a "dangerous erosion" of democratic norms.

Suspension of constitutional protections

  • Trump refused to affirm due process applies to all people on U.S. soil — dodging the 5th Amendment in multiple interviews.
  • DOJ lawyers now openly defying federal court orders, including Supreme Court rulings (e.g., refusal to repatriate Abrego García).
  • Stephen Miller openly floated suspending habeas corpus, a legal line that would officially mark the end of civilian constitutional protections.

Criminalization of peaceful protest and dissent

  • Over 50 federal employees have been criminally investigated and had their security clearances revoked, including legal advisors and critics.
  • Orders issued to investigate university protesters and compile lists of activists.
  • Trump-appointed U.S. attorneys threatening civil rights lawyers and immigrant advocates with prosecution.
  • Students for publishing an op-ed and protesting.

Transfer of migrants to foreign prisons

  • Attempted rendition of migrants to Libya, a nation in chaos, blocked only by a last-minute court order.
  • Ongoing use of terrorist prisons in El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act — now ruled unconstitutional, but policy remains.
  • Child citizens and cancer patients still being deported despite court rulings to stop.

State-enabled data weaponization

  • DOGE’s master database bypasses federal privacy laws, enabling surveillance and retaliation against individuals and entire groups.
  • Evidence this data is being used to trigger ICE raids, employment denials, and defunding actions.

On the Horizon:

  • The suspension of habeas corpus would mark a fully fledged stage 6— that threat is now explicit.
  • Mass arrests of journalists or formal bans on opposition parties have not yet occurred, but the conditions are being normalized.

Paramilitary action has not yet been confirmed beyond DHS/ICE — but unmarked agents and military-style policing are already normalized.

Civic Resistance: Strength Score, D+

Marker

Strength

Commentary

Judicial pushback

Moderate

Judges are issuing strong rulings (e.g., blocking Libya renditions, striking EO against Perkins Coie). But enforcement is crumbling — SCOTUS rulings are being defied, and ICE is arresting officials with impunity. Courts are acting, but they’re being ignored, and no real consequences follow.

Legal and professional resistance

Moderate to Weak

Lawyers’ protests (e.g., National Law Day of Action, ACLU litigation, state AG lawsuits) show courage. But there’s no united legal strike, and many firms have capitulated. Some exceptions like Perkins Coie refusing to back down — but others have folded.

State and local resistance

Moderate but tenuous

Governors like Mills and Evers are suing and refusing to comply with ICE. But most blue states are being careful, not defiant. Funding threats, loyalty oaths, and state-level surveillance are blunting resistance. Local officials like Newark’s mayor are being arrested.

Media resistance

Weak

Major outlets are compromised, fragmented, or fearful. Citizen journalism is rising, but lacks scale and safety. Conservative disinfo dominates narrative framing. Investigative journalism exists, but gets buried under state-aligned propaganda.

Academic and institutional resistance

Moderate

Some universities (e.g. Harvard) are suing and refusing to comply with loyalty-based funding. But others are already capitulating or self-censoring. DEI programs and academic speech protections are being dismantled via budgetary threats.

Direct action / protest

Weak and fragmented

Sit-ins and rallies (e.g., Columbia, Capitol, legal protests) show symbolic bravery, but scale is limited, and crackdowns are growing. Chilling effect is real — fear of surveillance, prosecution, and violence is preventing mobilization.

Whistleblowers and leaks

Limited but important

Some leaks from DOGE and DOJ show internal resistance, but loyalty purges and lie detector tests are thinning ranks. Protection for whistleblowers is collapsing. Fear of retaliation is sky-high.

International condemnation

Emerging

Canada and parts of the EU (especially France, Germany) are showing diplomatic pushback. But most formal alliances (NATO, UN) remain silent or cautious. Economic leverage has not yet been applied.

Religious and moral leadership

Mixed and rising

Pope Leo XIV’s message is significant — a global rebuke of MAGA theology. But right-wing Catholic and evangelical leaders in the U.S. are radicalized and aligned with Trump. Most mainstream religious institutions are still hesitant to intervene.

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