Stage 5 Began Today: What To Expect

April 23rd, 2025

Today marks a grave turning point.

For weeks, we’ve tracked the descent of the United States from soft authoritarianism into full entrenchment. But what happened today — with the confirmed disappearance of a legal resident, the rollout of disability surveillance systems, and sweeping new powers granted to partisan operatives over immigration data — signals something even more chilling:

Stage 5 has begun.

This is the stage where the machinery of the state is turned not just against institutions or vague “threats,” but against specific people. Specific identities. Specific communities. It’s selective — at first. But it expands.

Here’s what to expect, and what to watch for.

What Is Stage 5?

Stage 5 is the Selective Targeting of Broad Groups. It’s the moment when authoritarian regimes stop pretending the rules apply equally — and begin overtly punishing those who do not align with the ruling power.

This stage is marked by:

  • Data-driven repression — like autism registries or cross-agency data fusion
  • Legal double standards — certain groups lose access to courts, counsel, or recourse
  • Erasure of protections — ADA, LGBTQ+ rights, asylum and immigration law
  • Sudden disappearances — of immigrants, activists, journalists, or whistleblowers
  • Cultural memory wipes — through censorship, curriculum purges, and reclassification

What Happened Today

Several events signaled Stage 5’s onset:

  • A legal U.S. resident has vanished post-deportation — there are no records, no confirmed country of arrival, and no recourse.
  • Musk-aligned operatives gained access to one of the U.S. government’s most sensitive immigration databases, including records on legal and undocumented immigrants.
  • The NIH confirmed plans to mine private health records for a national autism registry — raising serious concerns of disability surveillance.
  • The Supreme Court signaled approval of opting children out of LGBTQ+ inclusive education, creating carve-outs for discrimination.
  • International students, legal spouses, and even toddlers are being denied due process in immigration courtrooms.

This is not hypothetical. It is happening now.

What Comes Next

If historical patterns hold — from Pinochet’s Chile to Erdoğan’s Turkey — the following developments are likely to accelerate in the next 1–3 months:

  • Silent purges: more people losing visas, benefits, or jobs for “paperwork errors” that are actually ideological vetting
  • Public humiliations and show cases: cases like Mr. Prada’s used to test public tolerance of cruelty
  • Algorithmic censorship: more dissenting voices shadowbanned or throttled without explanation
  • Registry expansions: targeting disabled people, immigrants, LGBTQ+ folks, religious minorities
  • Complicity through exhaustion: media normalizing selective oppression as “security” or “efficiency”

Why It Feels So Quiet

Selective targeting works because it doesn’t hit everyone at once.

It hits just enough people to send a message. And it counts on the rest of society to say:
“That won’t happen to me.”

This is how authoritarianism always advances — through fragmentation. Fear. And the hope that silence will be safer than solidarity.

But history teaches us that silence only buys time — not protection.

What You Can Do

  • Share this post. Help others understand what this moment really means.
  • Document everything. Save PDFs, screenshots, physical records. Truth matters, even if it is silenced for a time.
  • Join or support resistance efforts. Legal aid orgs, mutual aid networks, journalist protections.
  • Talk to your communities. Especially if they are marginalized or vulnerable. Help them prepare, not panic.
  • Stay grounded. Regimes rely on fear and chaos. Hold the line through clear thinking, strategic action, and community care.

Stage 5 is not the end — but it’s a warning shot.
If we understand what’s happening, we still have time to change what comes next.

Let’s not let this stage go unnoticed.

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