The Door to Martial Law Has Opened

The leadership of this regime's primary goal has been to consolidate control and silence dissent as fast as possible. Broadly, they have done this without true opposition from anyone who had capacity to check their power. 

Ever since mid-April, when the military delivered its recommendation about whether to invoke the Insurrection Act, which allows the military to be used against the domestic population, there has been an path open towards martial law.

Martial law appeals to strongmen leaders because they find the humiliation of subjugating and castrating their rivals (and disabling their rivals' ability to resist) deeply appealing. It signals, Star Wars style, that "resistance is futile", and you might as well throw in a "long live the king!"

It was always going to be a liberal city that first received federal troops, because nothing makes a fascist happier than extinguishing the light and hope of their foes.

Los Angeles, part of California (which had so hoped to be a bastion against this regime), is a vanguard of creative expression, diversity, and wealth. The City of Angels. So, when in true Californian fashion, people resisted the destruction of their communities through ICE raids, it provided the perfect pretext to do a few things:

  1. Federalize the one form of military (national guard) that could potentially serve the state interests over federal interests 
  2. Create an example of a liberal city to chill resistance in other geographies by showing violent consequences
  3. Get federal forces embedded alongside local law enforcement, to establish precedent for such a partnership (something foreshadowed by federal announcements about four weeks ago)
  4. Set up a legal challenge between liberal governors and federal defense leaders about who controls national guard troops long term (to facilitate power consolidation). Using Title 10 to activate National Guard units violates the Posse Comitatus Act, and conflicts with the Militia Clause in the U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 8, Clause 15).

The protests of ICE raids in LA were not destructive, meaningfully violent, or any form of real riot. The local police had the situation under control and did not need or request outside support. Some of the images of fires near the protests were actually started by flash bang grenades from police, not by protesters.

What does this mean for the US? 

It means that the military, one of the only remaining checks on power, is not likely to stand up to the regime. It means that martial law is now in effect at least in a test geography in the US, and is likely to soon expand. And it means that propaganda (like the narrative the administration is pushing about there being an "insurrection") is going to get more intense, and that suppression of resistance is likely going to get significantly more violent. Many forms of protest may soon be effectively criminalized (the start of this was seen today, with the protests being declared "unlawful assemblies"). 

What does this mean if you live in the US?

If you've been thinking about leaving, leave now. If you do not have multiple months of cash on hand for emergencies, put that together. If you do not have a passport, get one. If you choose to peacefully protest, be safe, and prepare thoroughly (have a lawyer on standby in case you get detained, have a mask against tear gas, carry water and a first aid kit with you). If you have health conditions, stock up on medications that may be impacted by tariffs or unrest.