Vigilante justice has begun
When people do not trust their government to be just, they take matters into their own hands. This is a bigger problem in countries that do not have gun control.
This government has been clear that it does not value its citizens' lives. It has targeted the poor and disabled through Medicaid cuts, the elderly through Medicare prior auths and price increases, the hungry through SNAP cuts, the LGBTQ+ through care blocks and hotline shutdowns, and more.
Laws are starting to be enforced highly selectively - almost any ruling can be appealed and entered into the Supreme Court shadow docket, which allows the court to rule without providing rationale, in favor of the administration.
As this starts to happen in authoritarian regimes, we start to see the erosion of institutional trust. And, as leader rhetoric like Trump's dehumanizes opponents and suggests violence is both acceptable and positive, it starts to make violence sound like the answer.
If you can't be treated fairly by the law, your rights are being systematically removed, and you're being told that people like you do not deserve to exist in society, people start to feel like they have little choice but to either be threatened and attacked by the institutions and leaders, or take matters into their own hands. If you have nothing left to lose, why not bet it all? An example of this would be the Luigi Mangione shooting of the United Healthcare CEO.
Alternatively, if you are on the side of the administration, you are likely seeing that violence is no longer being treated as illegal, but rewarded. The Proud Boys and the members of the January 6th insurrection have not only been pardoned, but are now asking the government for monetary restitution for committing crimes. There has never been a better time to commit a crime of loyalty, and news media is actively telling you that the "radical left" is full of subhuman child molesters. An example of this would be the shootings of the Minnesota lawmakers this past summer, or the attack on Paul Pelosi.
This has happened in other regimes that were experiencing authoritarian descent, like Weimar Germany and more recently in countries like India under Modi.
However, those countries, like Hungary, took multiple years to experience their drift.
The US is on a fundamentally different trajectory, because it has:
1) a higher baseline of violence (things like school shootings are normalized) and
2) it has more guns (400M+) than people in the country
It is deteriorating at a rate faster than any other modern authoritarian regime. The mix of political assassinations, breakdown in rule of law, and military deployment across an increasing number of cities is creating a tinder box when combined with an armed population, distrust in institutions, and extreme polarization.
You should expect increasing danger and risk of violence over the next twelve months.
In case that comes to an area near you (especially if you live in an area that has a high number of immigrants):
- Make sure medications are stocked for multiple weeks
- Have important documents and copies accessible
- Have emergency contacts established
- Have backup communications ready in case normal systems are disrupted
- Stay connected with neighbors and local community groups in case mutual aid is needed.