Why shortages are coming

Across grocery stores, pharmacies, and supply chains, most people in the U.S. still see shelves that look relatively full. But underneath that calm surface, deep disruptions are brewing. Here’s what you need to know—and why shortages are almost certainly coming.

1. The Trade War Has Escalated Into a Trade Siege

Tariffs on critical components like semiconductor chips, electronics, fertilizers, and medications are increasing. Countries like China and Vietnam are responding with export controls, while U.S. allies are being frozen out of negotiations or strong-armed into lopsided deals. Global supply chains don’t adapt instantly—when trade relationships fracture, it takes months (or years) to rebuild routes. Delays in shipping and manufacturing have already begun. Shortages often show up first in price increases, then in shelf gaps.

What to watch for:

  • Pharmaceutical ingredients
  • Agricultural imports like rice, soy, and fertilizer
  • Tech components (phones, laptops, cars)
  • Paper products and packaging materials

2. Political Retaliation Is Hitting Food and Medicine

The administration is punishing states and institutions by cutting off funding tied to essential goods. Maine’s SNAP and school lunch funding were delayed. Harvard’s medical research funding was revoked. Access to medications like Xolair, insulin, and MCAS treatments is being used as leverage. When supply is politicized, it creates localized famine-like conditions—not because the goods don’t exist, but because they are withheld.

What to watch for:

  • Health insurance disruptions
  • Delayed or denied prescriptions
  • States or counties with unusually low inventory in school food or clinics

3. Internal Systems Are Being Hacked From Within

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has already breached databases like the SSA, NLRB, and ECAS. They’ve deleted logs, rerouted data, and exfiltrated sensitive records. Multiple cybersecurity experts have said these actions resemble state-sponsored hacking. The consolidation of logistics, identity, and health systems under partisan control introduces risk of sabotage—not just incompetence.

What to watch for:

  • Disappearances from federal records (e.g. Social Security, Medicaid, immigration)
  • ID mismatches that block access to benefits
  • Mysterious outages in food, transit, or payment systems

4. Mass Firings and Demoralization in Public Service

The federal workforce is being gutted. DOGE wants to cut over 200,000 Pentagon civilian jobs. Labs that track infectious diseases and STIs are being shut down. Government scientists are resigning en masse under censorship. When there’s no one to inspect food, monitor outbreaks, or run distribution programs, systems grind to a halt.

What to watch for:

  • Surging outbreaks of preventable disease
  • Food recalls missed or delayed
  • Public confusion about eligibility for services

5. This Isn’t a Bug—It’s a Strategy

Authoritarian regimes historically use controlled scarcity to suppress dissent. When people must fight for baby formula, prescription refills, or electricity, they stop fighting the regime. Starvation is a form of crowd control. The current administration is building a loyalty-based system where goods go to “patriots,” and everyone else is considered disposable. The question isn’t whether there will be shortages—it’s whether they’ll be intentional.

What You Can Do (Right Now)

  • Stock essential medications and confirm prescriptions are filled.
  • Build a small emergency pantry with shelf-stable food and water.
  • Check your federal records (SSA, IRS, Medicare, etc.) for anomalies.
  • Secure important documents digitally and physically.
  • Support whistleblowers and journalists—they’re your early warning system.

Read more